Guarantees

When you're trying to sell a product on TV you need to buy advertising time and it's a complex process achieved through negotiation. No one wants to spend money on an audience that isn't there so a key part of this ad buy negotiation is to secure "guarantees". These guarantees are a clause in the contract that protect the buyer if, for example, the star of the show doesn't make it (for whatever reason) and the audience share falls off a cliff.

When you buy TV ad space you can, and should, negotiate for what are called guarantees.  Ad rates are based on projections (estimates) of what the audience will be.  You want a guarantee that your ad will reach the audience projected and if not, that you’ll receive money back or additional air time to compensate if the shows your ad aired on did not achieve their guarantees.  You do not pay more if a show reached more people than projected.

With this in mind a broadcaster can charge $500K (or whatever) for 30 seconds of ad time but the actual price is never really known until the ratings are tabulated and the guarantees kick in to determine the final price. Do you think Donald Trump and Roger Ailes are familiar with negotiated guarantees? I do.

“I’m running hard, and I believe I’ll be the Republican nominee.”

There are no guarantees in politics so you can take or leave this claim as you see fit but I GUARANTEE you this statement is true: If Donald Trump had never entered the GOP contest the USofA would be staring down the barrel of another Bush presidential run (and win) in 2016. JEB! started off with $100M in the bank and was a shoe-in to out spend, out last and out perform the other Republican challengers in the field - Last nights GOP Debate was a crystal clear window into what we citizens would have been witnessing for the past 6 months sans Trump. Bush would have looked just fine on stage with Cruz and Rubio and Christie and anyone else, endorsements for Bush would have piled up (they have piled up anyway), Mike Murphy would have used Right to Rise to hammer any challenger early and often and by Feb 1 the primary season would be over with Bush in a commanding lead and the nomination a fait accompli. No competing candidate in the GOP horse race would have hit JEB! hard because they'd all be angling for positions in his administration and none of them could have pulled in the cash and party apparatus to push him off the horse he is riding. All the "conservative" papers, magazines, editorialists, radio hosts and other opinion makers would have come around and, looking on the bright side, rationalized a thousand reasons why JEB! is a true conservative and the best choice for America (just like they did with McCain and Romney). Stability in the realm is the first concern and keeping the milk and honey flowing is a close second then comes a host of downstream issues, ideas and policies and then, way down stream is the American voter (i.e. the sap who pays for it all).

And speaking of paying for it all, let's have a look at our lead trade negotiator with China starting January 2017 - The Donald pulled him up on stage for a brief endorsement at last nights charity event for the Vets.

Phil Ruffin - Our New Man in China

Yes America, that's Phil Ruffin and he's the kind of guy who knows how to make a deal - a good negotiator. He's also the kind of guy that no other politician would let loose on the Chinese (or anyone else) because, in the average politicians eyes, he doesn't look the part. But DJT isn't interested in looks - he's interested in competency and results, or hasn't he made that clear by this point, and Phil Ruffin gets results. He also pays for the privilege of living in the USA so it's about time he had a say in how the place is being run and what deals are being cut.

I've said it before, but this Trump candidacy is not what any of the talking heads claim it to be. It's not the Establishment vs. the Rubes, it's not Urban vs. Country, it's not Conservative vs. Liberal vs. Progressive vs. Fascist or anything like that. This is an insurgency by men of accomplishment and capability to toss out the nerds and assholes they ignored and made fun of in high school but now run our Federal Government and its weak sister the national news media. Trump and Ruffin and Icahn and the rest of them might not win, but they're giving it their best shot and if they pull it off I guarantee it's going to be HUGE!